![]() ![]() The status of Russian-occupied Crimea and of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia now recognises as independent states, is not agreed. There are other big issues that remain unresolved. That was one of Russia’s major demands and might allow Putin to claim some sort of victory. The Ukrainians seem to have accepted that they will not join Nato and will instead be a neutral state. The Russians and Ukrainians have been talking almost from the beginning of the conflict. The appalling losses for both sides, now and in the future, should increase the prospects for a negotiated peace. But stepped-up military assistance to Ukraine may blur the line between intervention and non-intervention - raising the risk of a direct clash between Russia and the west. The US and European governments are likely to continue resisting that pressure. The pressure on western leaders to intervene would increase as atrocities get worse. Even capturing Odesa, which would allow Russia to effectively control Ukraine’s coastline, could take months and involve the destruction of the port city that serves as the headquarters of the Ukrainian naval forces.Īs well as causing terrible casualties, a prolonged war would steadily increase the risk of escalation. Surrounding Ukraine’s capital, bombarding it into submission and then successfully taking control of it looks beyond the capabilities of the Russian military. There are ominous indications that the Kremlin is considering the use of chemical weapons already used in Syria.īut Kyiv has roughly six times the population of Mariupol. As they get more desperate, the Russians may become even more vicious. ![]() ![]() #WORLD IN CONFLICT GAME WE DID NOT EXPECT FULL#The increasing brutality of Russian tactics, which is on full display in Mariupol, is a guide to the future. The Russians may be about to conquer the strategic port of Mariupol - but only by destroying it in the process. Putin is fighting to save his political life and the Ukrainians are fighting to save their country.Īfter almost a month of conflict, Russia has failed to take control of any of Ukraine’s major cities and has suffered heavy losses of men and equipment. The long, grinding war scenario assumes that neither Russia nor Ukraine is now capable of achieving total victory and that neither is prepared to concede defeat. ![]()
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